U.S.-Based Community Critical Of The Ukraine Conflict Doubled In Size From The Previous Week

Political influencers in U.S. drive growth in highly critical communities and narratives

Constella’s team of intelligence analysts created a custom, proprietary dashboard available through our Dome Platform, visualizing selected dimensions of the digital public conversation related to the Ukraine crisis to identify fast-moving global trends emerging from the online debate and to better understand the narratives and critical players driving the digital conversation. Each week, Constella Intelligence will share notable findings from its dashboard on the Constella Intelligence blog. Below are key insights from May 10th to May 16th, 2022, from the digital public conversation related to Ukraine. Over the period analyzed, the dashboard captured 10,663,085 results generated by 1,899,100 users interacting in English.

KEY INSIGHTS – MAY 10TH TO 16TH, 2022

1. U.S. based profiles drive growth in highly critical communities and narratives
A community expressing discontent at domestic U.S. issues within the context of the Ukraine conflict sees a notable increase in size since the previous week’s analysis, swelling from just 11.6% of total users to 20.2%. This community is now the second-largest detected in the analysis and represents more than 1 in 5 users participating in the debate. Conservative political figures, such as Donald Trump Jr., Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie gain notable influence in the debate, successfully generating negative sentiment related to the Biden administration’s policies in addition to other local debates.

Jonathan Nelson headshot

Jonathan Nelson

Director, Risk Intelligence

2. Communities characterized by negative sentiment continue to occupy approximately one-third of the overall debate

Communities marked by critical sentiment, disapproval of public officials and institutions, and in some extreme cases, conspiracy theories and disinformation content continue to occupy a significant proportion of the overall digital debate related to Ukraine. Two principal clusters of critical and negative activity are detected. First, a community consisting of about 1 in 5 users identified that is mainly focused on domestic U.S. debates. The second critical/negative community identified includes a highly politicized international cluster of users representing over 10% of total users in the digital conversation. In this community, the account of the Russian Embassy in the U.K. (@RussianEmbassy) can be identified. Users share content on a wide range of topics, including the use of Nazi symbols in the recent Buffalo shooting (and tying this to the Azov Battalion) and blaming Ukraine for war crimes in Donetsk.

COMMUNITIES – MAY 10TH TO 16TH, 2022

1. Ukraine Support (36.4% of users): Community led by journalists and media located in Ukraine. Comments are shared concerning the Russian military’s attacks on civilians, including unarmed women and children or men. Messages of support for the Ukrainian people and conversations regarding Zelensky’s meetings with American politicians circulate. Users also criticize Russia’s threats related to Finland’s intent join NATO.

2. U.S. Discontent (20.2% of users): Community led by Republican politicians such as Donald Trump Jr., Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie. Their comments are highly influential in this community, criticizing the Biden administration for passing a new aid package to Ukraine while not addressing other problems like the scarcity of baby formula.

3. International Discontent (10.7% of users): Polarized community led by independent media and journalists. Users criticize Russia’s ban from participating in Eurovision due to the conflict in Ukraine, stating that Israel is not treated the same way. Users also argue that the financial aid sent to Ukraine is a source of income for defense contractors to continue an eternal war. Criticism of Ukraine’s acceptance of the Azov Battalion and their influence in the conflict persist.

4. Fundraising (1.9% of users): Marketing and diffusion campaigns to raise funds to support those affected by the conflict.

5. U.K. Support (1.7% of users): Community mainly from the United Kingdom, where Ukraine’s presence at Eurovision is discussed. Users congratulate the Ukrainian team for winning the contest while affirming that this victory is a sign of love and support from Europeans towards Ukraine.

6. U.S. Support (1.5% of users): Community focused on the detention of basketball player Brittney Griner by Russia. Users express desire for Griner to be released and discuss updates from U.S. officials and agencies on the matter.

7. Ukraine Support in Eurovision 2022 (1.3% of users): International users congratulate Ukraine on winning the Eurovision Music Contest

APPENDIX – MAY 10TH TO 16TH, 2022

In the first iteration of this dashboard, we captured results related to the following 3 dimensions: Countries, Key Figures, Themes

  • Selected countries currently in the dashboard include: The United States, Ukraine, Russia, China, Poland, Belarus.
  • Selected Key Figures currently in the dashboard include: Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, Joe Biden, Boris Johnson, Ursula Von der Leyen, Josep Borrell, Xi Jinping, Olaf Scholz. Any mentions to these key figures are captured in the dashboard and can be visualized across multiple dimensions of analysis.
  • Selected themes currently in the dashboard include: Ukraine Citizens Impact, Economy, Cyberattacks, Migration Movements
 
Interested in seeing our Ukraine dashboard in action? Request a demo with one of our geopolitical intelligence experts.

Constella's Ukraine dashboard - Communities Module Preview

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